
Trade experts expect India's non-basmati rice exports in 2021-22 to match or exceed last fiscal year's record of 13.08 million tonnes. Panic buying seen during the pandemic has faded, and Indian 5% parboiled prices fell $5-7 a tonne over two weeks to $364-368.
Strong Indian supply and softer buying from importers with ample stocks point to lower global rice prices, with importers buying mainly when prices are low.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.