
Oil prices settled at two-month lows after US officials played down the prospect of further military action against Iran, easing concerns about Middle East supply disruptions. Prices recovered some early losses after an Iranian official said there were no current negotiations between Tehran and Washington.
Diminished near-term conflict risk reduces crude’s geopolitical premium and pressures prices, although continuing tensions limit certainty about supply and energy costs.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.