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Tight diesel inventories and disruptions to Russian supply are supporting refining margins globally, while weaker gasoline demand and softer Asian fuel-oil cracks are limiting further gains. Attacks on Russian refineries are expected to reduce future diesel exports, with the impact likely to affect December cargoes.
Reduced Russian diesel availability could increase demand for supplies from India and the U.S. Gulf Coast and support diesel prices and refining margins. The article describes pressure on future export flows rather than a new feed-grain supply shock.
kpler.comNov 10, 2026After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
