
Asia's cash premiums for 10 ppm gasoil rose to a three-week high, up 19.3% over the week. Singapore middle distillate inventories fell to their lowest level in over eight years as buyers continue to avoid Russian supplies.
Chinese COVID lockdowns may limit regional demand.
Tight regional stocks and redirected flows away from Russian barrels support diesel prices and refining margins. Higher diesel costs raise freight and processing costs for feed producers.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.