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The article argues that oat stocks-to-use has risen to 23.6%, close to the 23.4% recorded in 2025/26, when the USDA’s season-average farm price was $3.23 per bushel. It gives a December 10 base-case futures target of 323 cents, with a 311-cent bear case and a 350.75-cent bull case.
A relatively loose stocks-to-use ratio points to more available supply compared with use and supports a lower price outlook. A reduction in ending stocks could instead tighten the balance and support prices.
theindustryspread.comAbdelaziz FathiNov 10, 2026After 72 past bearish report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
