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European gas prices fell by nearly €20/MWh over ten days after exceeding €100/MWh in early November, partly as Iran ceasefire prospects eased geopolitical risk premiums. Lower gas costs may improve European ammonia and ammonium nitrate producers’ margins and support a gradual production recovery, although the market remains vulnerable to supply and geopolitical risks.
Cheaper gas lowers a key nitrogen-fertilizer production cost and could increase supply while putting downward pressure on fertilizer prices. However, low gas stocks and risks involving the Strait of Hormuz and Algeria make that relief uncertain.
terre-net.frLaure SauvageNov 10, 2026After 113 past macro events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.3%), and +3.7% over 20.
After 59 past bearish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.0% to +5.2%), and -2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
