
IHS Markit forecasts a persistent US natural gas oversupply will push the 2020 average Henry Hub price below $2/MMBtu in real terms, the lowest since the 1970s. Production is expected to exceed 90 billion ft3/d in 2019 and 2020, outpacing robust domestic demand and rising LNG exports.
A fresh surge of Permian associated gas is expected to add further supply.
Cheap US natural gas lowers energy costs for feed processors and supports competitive pricing for US grain-based feed ingredients, while weighing on energy-linked price sentiment.
After 59 past bearish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.0% to +5.2%), and -2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.