Oil prices fell to six-week lows as traders pared the risk premium associated with a possible escalation of the U.S.-Iran war. Dovish U.S. comments, reports of a possible diplomatic agreement with Iran that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks eased concerns about supply disruptions.
Lower perceived risks to crude and fuel supply put downward pressure on oil and diesel prices, which can reduce energy and transport costs for feed supply chains.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.