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The dollar strengthened after US inflation came in above expectations and Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller made cautious comments on interest rates. The real was also pressured by domestic policy uncertainty, a dovish reading of the Copom minutes, and falling oil prices; the dollar reached R$5.5725 during the morning.
The weaker real raises the local cost of imported feed inputs, while falling crude prices reduce support for Brazil’s terms of trade and currency. The combination may sustain pressure on the real and increase import costs.
valor.globo.comArthur CagliariNov 10, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
