On November 9, Alyaksandr Lukashenka discussed building a nitrogen plant in Belarus and called for more active work on phosphorus fertilizers. He also claimed that Americans had asked him for potash fertilizers.
Potential expansion of Belarusian fertilizer production could add supply and weigh on fertilizer prices if it proceeds. The reported U.S. interest in potash points to demand, but no purchase or production volume was specified.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.