
Egyptian granular urea export prices rose to $535 per ton FOB in November, about 17% above September’s $457. Natural gas supply restrictions are limiting producers’ available feedstock: Kima reported a 20% cut in deliveries, while Mopco said it is adjusting production to available gas.
Egypt has about 3.6 million tons of potential annual urea export surplus.
Lower gas availability can reduce Egyptian nitrogen-fertilizer output and exportable supply, tightening availability in import markets and supporting urea prices.
After 49 past bullish logistics events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 54 past bullish logistics events, Natural Gas moved a median -1.8% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -5.7% to +6.2%), and +5.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.