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US farmers and retailers are concerned about nitrogen supply and price for 2023. The Russia-Ukraine war and low Mississippi River levels could hurt supply in early 2023.
An Illinois farmer and a retailer discussed these risks in a University of Illinois Extension webinar.
Low river levels restrict barge movement of fertilizer, which can tighten nitrogen supply and support prices in the US spring season.
After 49 past bullish logistics events, UREA moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.