Rabobank says Australian grain growers face possible shortages of imported fertilizers and agrochemicals due to COVID-19, though supplies are mostly adequate for now. Urea imports are a growing concern as growers prepare to seed the winter crop after favourable rains.
Tight Australian urea imports during peak seeding could lift local nitrogen prices and may affect winter crop planting decisions, with limited effect on grain prices.
After 49 past bullish logistics events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.