Wood Mackenzie says Houston Ship Channel gas prices could climb to a significant premium without new pipeline capacity from Katy and Agua Dulce hubs. Permian associated gas could reach nearly 20 Bcf/d by 2025, with several pipelines adding about 6 Bcf/d between now and late 2021.
Regional basis differentials shift the price for Texas gas delivered to Gulf Coast LNG and industrial users, but the effect on national gas prices is limited.
After 54 past bullish logistics events, NATGAS moved a median -1.8% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -5.7% to +6.2%), and +5.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.