Lower energy prices and strong risk appetite outweighed rising US yields as key driver for the US Dollar

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Nov 26, 2020U.S. Dollar On Glide Path Lower as Fed Seen Eyeing Long-term Bond Yields-1.2%
• Jul 31, 2024Stocks rise; yields, dollar lower as Fed signals rate cut-0.5%
• Jul 30, 2026US Dollar: Real yields drive correction risk – ING — Octa-1.2%
• Nov 2, 2023US dollar retreats as risk appetite rises, Fed rate hikes seen as done-1.4%
• Jun 16, 2020Fed debt buying drives demand for risk at the dollar’s expense | 1330 & 101.5 WHBL-0.2%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Jun 1, 2026Ringgit ends higher against US dollar on renewed risk appetite+1.3%
• Sep 18, 2026Ringgit opens higher against US dollar as oil prices ease | The Star-0.3%
• Dec 6, 2022Ringgit ends lower against US dollar as oil prices decline | Malay Mail-6.1%
• Mar 19, 2021RM opens 120 bps lower amid falling oil prices, US yields spike-1.8%
• Feb 2, 2018Oil prices fall as US stock market slumps and dollar strengthens-6.3%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jun 1, 2026Ringgit ends higher against US dollar on renewed risk appetite+1.7%
• Dec 6, 2022Ringgit ends lower against US dollar as oil prices decline | Malay Mail-5.0%
• May 27, 2020Canadian dollar advances to 2½-month high as risk appetite climbs - The Globe and Mail+6.6%
• Feb 2, 2018Oil prices fall as US stock market slumps and dollar strengthens-7.0%
• Dec 20, 2018The Canadian dollar and the price at the gas pump: Why you can’t win for losing - The Globe and Mail-6.7%