
ING says US real yields and the dollar fell after a confusing FOMC press conference, as markets read the Fed as less willing to hike. It expects DXY may correct toward 100.50 and flags upcoming GDP and core PCE data as the key drivers before the September FOMC.
If DXY corrects lower on weaker data, dollar-priced commodities could firm. The outlook depends on US inflation and growth prints that have not yet been released.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.