Five factors why US yields aren’t driving USD - Nomura

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Jul 30, 2026US Dollar: Real yields drive correction risk – ING — Octa-1.2%
• May 31, 2024AUD/USD recovers as weaker US GDP sparks US yields drop — Octa+0.3%
• Oct 2, 2019Dollar falls vs yen, euro, tracking US stocks, yields-0.2%
• Dec 11, 2020USD: FOMC action to keep dollar on weaker footing – MUFG — Octa-0.7%
• May 2, 2018US Dollar turns negative post-FOMC, around 92.40 — Octa+1.2%

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Feb 27, 2018Making sense of the weak USD – Westpac — Octa+0.3%
• Mar 31, 2017EUR: ECB normalisation sequence matters - Nomura — Octa-0.7%
• Apr 17, 2023The multiple factors underpinning the renewed strength of the euro against the dollar-0.1%
• May 29, 2020What’s driving the Euro's sharp rally?+2.3%
• Jan 30, 2026Why the US dollar hit a four-year low and could fall further-1.2%