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BNP Paribas attributes the euro's renewed strength against the dollar to a return to current account surplus and a narrowing one-year interest rate gap with the U.S. The bank expects the Fed to end its tightening cycle before the ECB and says the euro remains well below its long-term fair value. It also flags that unhedged dollar positions could amplify dollar selling.
Continued dollar weakness would support U.S. dollar-denominated commodity prices and improve export competitiveness for U.S. feed ingredients.
economic-research.bnpparibas.comApr 17, 2023After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
