Loading…
Brent fell below $92/bbl and WTI traded near $86/bbl as markets priced in lower risk of further US-Iran escalation. Recovering Gulf oil flows and reports that Iran may soften its position on control of the Strait of Hormuz added to the pressure; China’s crude imports rose 13% month-on-month in October.
Reduced disruption risk and recovering exports add supply to the market, unwinding geopolitical premiums and weighing on oil and gas prices.
think.ing.comEwa Manthey, Warren PattersonNov 10, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 15 past bearish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -9.2% to +2.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
