
Brent and WTI prices fell further on Tuesday as investors anticipated that diplomatic talks could end the US-Iran conflict. Trump said there was positive momentum toward ending the war and described further strikes as unlikely, while not ruling them out.
A possible resolution could reduce the risk premium tied to Middle East supply disruptions and allow energy flows to resume, putting downward pressure on crude prices.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.