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Improved soil moisture after fall rainfall and receding drought across parts of the Southern Plains are expected to encourage a recovery in U.S. winter wheat plantings from a 117-year low. Higher insurance prices and the incentive to reduce fallow acreage are also supporting acreage prospects, although sagging exports and uncertain prices remain concerns.
More favorable moisture and increased plantings could lift future U.S. wheat supply, weighing on prices if realized. Weak exports add to the downside risk, despite the possibility that El Niño brings further drought relief.
farmprogress.comBruce BlytheNov 10, 2026After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 70 past bearish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
