
MGEX spring wheat futures rallied for a fifth straight session on Tuesday to their highest since June 28, as wet weather lowered protein levels in northern Plains harvest. Winter wheat fell on good soil moisture and light export demand, while China granted new tariff waivers for U.S. soybean purchases of roughly 5-6 million tonnes.
Quality losses in spring wheat support prices for higher-protein supplies, while China's waivers support soybean and soymeal demand.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 70 past bearish weather events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.