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J.P. Morgan expects El Niño to peak around December 2026–January 2027, then ease toward neutral conditions in summer 2027, with a possible shift to La Niña in autumn.
The outlook points to a warmer-than-usual Chinese winter, with precipitation varying by region, and potentially continued agricultural stress into 2027.
Dry, warm conditions could increase fertilizer demand and pressure crop production, while reduced hydropower generation could raise energy costs. Stronger nitrogen-fertilizer exports could support urea prices, though the article notes domestic prices may remain weak.
unhidea.comNov 9, 2026After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
