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Fertilizer plants in the US shut down in late February because of a natural gas shortage caused by the historic cold snap. Ammonia and urea production depends on natural gas, and the shutdowns left some farmers unable to obtain fertilizer during a short spring application window.
Farmers in the southern Plains were already behind schedule.
Lost nitrogen output tightens supply just as spring application peaks, supporting urea prices and raising feed grain input costs. Natural gas price strength adds to the cost pressure on nitrogen producers.
hpj.comLacey VilhauerMar 5, 2021After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.
After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
