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EUR/USD edged lower near 1.1220 as the US dollar strengthened ahead of the October US CPI release, despite increased speculation about a US-Iran agreement. The article notes that lower crude prices and hopes for greater regional stability may support the euro, while French political uncertainty and concerns about ECB leadership weigh on it.
Markets were also pricing a higher chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase in December.
Currency moves can affect the dollar cost of imported feed commodities, while lower oil prices may ease energy and freight cost pressures. The CPI release and changing rate expectations could drive further movement in the dollar and euro.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
