
Russia set a quantitative limit of 18,897,098 tonnes on exports of mineral fertilizers to countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union from December 1, 2026, through May 31, 2027. The quota includes separate limits for several nitrogen and compound-fertilizer product codes, with specified exemptions for transit and other movements.
The quota limits the volume of Russian fertilizer available to non-EAEU buyers, potentially tightening export supply and supporting fertilizer prices. The effect will depend on how the quota compares with expected export volumes and demand.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.