
WTI fell to around $85.30 in early Asian trading on Tuesday as traders responded to Trump's comments that he was highly unlikely to order fresh attacks on Iran. A proposed Qatar-Pakistan initiative and a possible US offer to release Iranian assets were reported as part of efforts to restart negotiations.
Prospects for talks reduce the perceived risk of further disruption to Middle East oil supplies, weighing on crude prices. The reported proposal is not an agreement, so the price pressure depends on diplomatic progress.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.