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Russia, Ukraine and the United States are due to discuss the Black Sea grain corridor in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11, with Ukraine making the corridor a priority. Canadian canola exports are running 55.2% ahead of last year, while January canola fell C$35.80 over the week.
USDA’s November WASDE and Crop Production reports are scheduled for November 10; traders expect a lower U.S. corn yield and a higher soybean yield.
The prospect of progress on Black Sea navigation has pressured wheat futures, though the talks have not yet produced an agreement. Stronger Canadian canola exports may tighten domestic availability, while the upcoming USDA reports could shift corn and soybean price expectations.
pgi.klarenbach.caTrent KlarenbachNov 9, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
