
WTI fell nearly 3% on Monday to around $87 a barrel as diplomatic efforts to restart US-Iran negotiations intensified. Regional tensions persisted, including an attack on an Iraqi gas field and Iran’s accusation that the United States struck Qeshm Island.
The prospect of renewed negotiations and a possible end to hostilities reduces the perceived risk of prolonged oil-supply disruption, weighing on crude prices.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.