WTI fell in early Asian trading after President Donald Trump said the Iran war could end soon and was effectively over militarily. The Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted, while hostilities involving Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis continued to pose supply risks.
Prospects for an end to the conflict and signs of improving supply weigh on crude prices, while disruption risks in the Middle East provide a countervailing floor.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.