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The FAO projected 2026 global cereal production to fall 1.7% year over year, including a 2.8% decline in wheat output to 819.1 million tonnes. International wheat trade was forecast to fall 8.6%, while global cereal stocks were projected to rise to 974.7 million tonnes; maize trade was expected to grow and rice trade to increase as production fell.
Lower wheat output and trade may support wheat prices, but rising cereal stocks could cushion the supply squeeze. Reduced rice production alongside higher consumption could also lend support to rice prices.
insights.tridge.comNov 9, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
