Russia set a mineral fertilizer export quota of about 18.9 million tonnes for December 2026 through May 2027, down from the 20 million-tonne limit for June–November 2026. The quota covers more than 11.3 million tonnes of nitrogen fertilizers and more than 7.5 million tonnes of complex fertilizers, with the stated aim of securing domestic supply.
A lower export ceiling could reduce fertilizer availability for overseas buyers and support prices, particularly for nitrogen and complex fertilizers.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.