
Commitment of Traders data for the week to November 3 showed hedge funds were net sellers across all 25 major futures contracts, cutting their combined net-long position by 33% to 783,000 contracts. The combined grains and oilseeds net long fell 83% in six weeks, with corn moving from a record net long to a net short; crude oil longs also reached a three-month low.
Liquidation of long positions and a shift to net short positioning can add selling pressure to grain and oil futures, although positioning data alone does not establish a change in physical supply or demand. The reported shift points to a bearish market signal for corn, soybeans and crude oil.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.