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The June WASDE was soft for wheat as higher supply estimates for Russia and India lifted global inventory projections. The same note reports ICE Brent trading down about 1% on demand concerns and talk of a possible US-Iran nuclear deal.
Analysts also noted aluminium supply constraints in China.
Higher Russian and Indian wheat supplies add bearish pressure to world wheat prices, which feeds into imported grain costs. Softer crude prices lower the energy cost backdrop for feed transport.
think.ing.comEwa Manthey, Warren PattersonJun 12, 2023After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
