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Brent slipped below $97/bbl as markets priced in reduced Iran-related risk and stronger supply, including a reported 930 kb/d rise in OPEC output in October. European gas rebounded, while low renewable generation supported higher power prices in Central Western Europe; shipping and infrastructure incidents remained risks but were viewed as isolated disruptions.
Higher oil production and reduced expectations of escalation weigh on crude prices, while persistent transit risks limit the downside. Tight European gas fundamentals and weak renewable output support gas prices, although the text gives no specific gas price move.
energyscan.engie.comNov 9, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
