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European gas prices broke €100 per MWh on October 28 for the first time since 2022, with EU storage at a record low of 74.89% full against a 90% target. Goldman Sachs and Gazprom have floated much higher prices if a cold winter coincides with the continued Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Expensive gas raises European fertilizer and processing costs and supports demand for substitute energy and feed alternatives. A cold winter with depleted storage could keep upward pressure on energy-linked feed input costs.
intellinews.comBen Aris in BerlinNov 1, 2026After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
