
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned vessels using alternative routes in the Strait of Hormuz that mines could pose a danger. The report also cites a UKMTO notice of fires on two tankers off Oman and an Iranian claim that two tankers struck mines in the strait, a route carrying about one-fifth of global oil consumption.
Threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raise the risk of oil-flow disruptions and support a risk premium in crude prices. Higher energy costs could feed through to feed production and transport expenses.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.