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Oil prices fell sharply on February 2 as concerns about US military action in Iran subsided and nuclear talks appeared close. The US and India also agreed a trade deal that lowers US tariffs on Indian goods and ends the extra tariff tied to Indian purchases of Russian oil.
The analysts expect this to increase the volume of Russian crude available at sea.
Lower tariffs and a possible drop in Indian purchases of discounted Russian crude could push more Russian oil into the market and widen the Urals discount. That would weigh on global crude prices and could eventually force Russian output cuts.
think.ing.comWarren Patterson, Ewa MantheyFeb 3, 2026After 56 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
ING attributes the Feb 2 oil drop to fading fears of US military action in Iran, and the US-India deal could raise Russian crude supply at sea.
