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Crude oil sold off sharply after the US midterm results and hopes for US–Iran negotiations, with WTI down more than 17% from resistance and Brent down more than 18%. The report says recent Houthi escalations against Saudi Arabia continue to add a geopolitical risk premium, while technical levels point to potential support and rebound risk.
A lower perceived risk of conflict and the steep price decline are bearish for crude, while attacks that threaten regional supply routes can sustain a risk premium and limit further losses.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
