
Brent fell about 17% over the week to $98.32 per barrel, while WTI dropped around 13% to $90.83. Prices declined as investors anticipated a diplomatic path to easing the Iran conflict, while recovering oil exports and softer demand added pressure; tanker attacks limited the decline late in the week.
A potential reduction in conflict-related supply disruptions, combined with recovering exports and weaker consumption, increases expected oil availability and weighs on crude prices. Continued attacks on shipping leave some upside risk to the supply outlook.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.