
Ireland’s Central Statistics Office preliminary estimates show agricultural output prices fell 10.3% in 2026 from 2025, while farm input prices rose 6.5%, reducing farmers’ terms of trade by 15.8%. Milk prices fell 18.1%, fertiliser prices rose 18%, and energy costs increased 17.9%.
Lower milk returns alongside higher fertiliser and energy costs squeeze farm margins and may weigh on dairy production incentives, while higher input costs raise expenses for crop and feed production. The figures point to bearish milk-price pressure but potential cost support for fertiliser.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.