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The USDA's Milk Production report showed March output in 24 major states at 18.3 billion lb, up 2.4% from a year earlier, with the herd up 64,000 head year over year. Dairy product prices had fallen as demand weakened.
Rising milk output into weaker dairy demand adds supply pressure and pushes milk prices lower, with analysts expecting a recovery only in the second half of 2020.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.