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The World Bank forecasts average fertilizer prices to increase 14% in 2026, with urea averaging $510 per tonne, DAP $735 and potash $383. It attributes the outlook to trade disruptions, export restrictions, higher production costs, the Middle East conflict, Black Sea disruptions, biofuel demand and El Niño-related risks.
Higher fertilizer prices raise crop production costs and can constrain application, potentially tightening future grain and oilseed supplies and supporting their prices. The projected increase in urea and DAP is particularly relevant to buyers exposed to nitrogen and phosphate costs.
jardineriaon.comNov 7, 2026After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
