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Grain futures fell sharply after USDA's August WASDE report raised US soybean yield to 51.6 bushels per acre from 48.5 and total production to 4.586 billion bushels, well above trade expectations. Corn and wheat also traded lower, with analysts noting corn and wheat fundamentals are relatively better.
Soybean ending stocks were raised by 205 million bushels.
Larger-than-expected US soybean and corn supplies and higher ending stocks point to lower feed and oilseed meal prices. The surprise yield jump is a major bearish driver for the complex.
feedstuffs.comBen PotterAug 10, 2018
oilandgas360.comOil &, Gas 360Aug 27, 2018Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The August 10 WASDE raised soybean yield to 51.6 bpa and production to 4.586 billion bushels, far above trade expectations, which drove the sharp one-day price drop.
Details the WASDE soybean yield increase to 51.6 bpa and production of 4.586 billion bushels, well above trade expectations, which pushed grain futures sharply lower.
