
Equatorial Pacific temperatures were reported more than 2°C above average, and forecasts indicate warming could continue through December 2026 or January 2027, potentially reaching +2.5°C or higher. One model projects El Niño weakening between February and April 2027 before a second peak in June, a pattern with no recorded precedent; the article also mentions near-term monitoring of storms, hail, and isolated frosts.
A prolonged or renewed El Niño could increase uncertainty around rainfall and crop operations, creating potential yield and supply risks. The article gives no specific feed-crop production estimate or confirmed price effect.
After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.