Dollar closes higher as attention focuses on the US economy and Brazil’s fiscal outlook

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Aug 30, 2024Spot dollar closes higher for the 5th session despite interventions by the Central Bank | Brasil 247-0.8%
• Jun 28, 2018How a Rising U.S. Dollar Puts Argentina's and Brazil's Economies at Risk+1.8%
• Dec 1, 2025Dollar closes higher against the real, bucking the trend abroad | Brasil 247+1.3%
• Sep 23, 2024Dollar rises more than 1% at the start of a week marked by inflation data in Brazil and the US | Brasil 247-1.1%
• May 14, 2024Brazil sees second-largest dollar outflow ever-1.2%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Oct 30, 2017US tax and upbeat economic outlooks lift dollar’s fortunes | The National-0.2%
• Sep 17, 2020Dollar edges higher as Fed outlook lifts U.S. yields | Financial Post+1.6%
• Oct 22, 2024Dollar climbs with US rates on economic outlook - Business & Finance - Business Recorder+0.3%
• Jul 12, 2022Brent crude settles below $100/bbl on higher dollar, weak demand outlook-0.4%
• Nov 10, 2016US dollar extends surge as Trump's triumph boosts inflation outlook - The Business Times+1.9%