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IKAR lowered its 2026/27 Russian grain export estimate to 49.5 million tonnes from 52.8 million tonnes, including a reduction in its wheat estimate to 39.5 million tonnes from 42 million tonnes. It raised its stress-scenario estimate for total grain exports to 36.5 million tonnes from 35 million tonnes, with wheat at 30 million tonnes versus 29 million tonnes previously, while noting exports are tracking that scenario.
The lower baseline outlook points to reduced Russian export availability, which can support global wheat prices. The higher stress-case estimate offers some counterweight but still implies exports well below the main forecast.
selobiznes.ruOlgaNov 5, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
