An Estonian METK study found that declines in farm-gate prices are passed through to retail food prices unevenly and with delays. Over the year, farm-gate milk prices fell 23% and pork carcass prices 22%, but retail prices for some dairy products and meat rose, including beef mince up 37% and pork mince up 38%.
The findings show that lower livestock and dairy input costs do not translate quickly or uniformly into cheaper food for consumers, as processing and retail margins affect pass-through. The report indicates limited immediate demand-side relief for feed buyers from falling farm-gate prices.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.