
USDA's December Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook projects Q4 US pork production at 7.09 billion pounds, up 2.4% year over year, with hog prices averaging $54 per cwt, down 15%. Q1 2024 hog price forecasts were lowered to $56 per cwt, while 2024 is seen averaging $60.
Ample hog supplies and weak pork cutout demand point to continued pressure on hog prices into early 2024. Lower hog values reduce producer margins and could slow future herd expansion.
After 159 past bearish report events, HOGS moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.