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The USDA June Hogs and Pigs report showed the highest June 1 hog inventory since records began in 1964, at 73.5 million head, up 3 percent year over year. Pigs per litter reached a record 10.63, and the March-May pig crop was the largest for that period since 1970.
A record hog inventory and larger pig crop add heavy supply that will pressure hog prices into the fourth quarter. This report surprise is a major bearish fundamental for pork and related feed demand.
hpj.comHPJ StaffJul 8, 2018After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The USDA June Hogs and Pigs report showed record inventory and litter rates, a bearish supply backdrop that had been feeding into prices, though it came out about a week before the move.
